Evoluția fertilității în profil generational: analiza retrospectivă și prospectivă

Abstract

The main objective of this study is the analysis of changes in fertility of female birth cohorts. Age-specific fertility rates, completed fertility and preliminary estimations are presented and analyzed for 1960-1985 birth cohorts. The longitudinal analysis shows a significant impact of family policy adopted in the 80s of the last century on completed fertility for female 1970-1972 birth cohort. Reduction of the intensity and the postponement of births after 1990 year (1975-1985 cohort) is a characteristic feature of recent fertility trends. One of the conclusions is evident: stabilization of completed fertility at the level of 1,5 children per woman is the most realistic scenario in the next few years.