Impactul fluxurilor de capital asupra cursului de schimb real efectiv (REER)

Abstract

Globalizarea financiara ofera beneficii insemnate pentru tarile in curs de dezvoltare, desi in acelasi timp, implica riscuri esentiale. Cresterea semnificativa a fluxurilor de capital sporeste vulnerabilitatea sistemului financiar, inclusiv prin majorarea volumului creditelor acordate si poate duce la supraincalzirea economiei, provocata de cresterea economica accelerata si a inflatiei, si in special de aprecierea cursului de schimb real efectiv. Pierderea competitivitatii cauzata de aprecierea cursului de schimb real efectiv este una dintre principalele consecinte negative associate cu fluxurile de capital. Dincolo de efectul negativ asupra investitiilor, aprecierea cursului de schimb real efectiv sporeste deficitul de cont curent, si creste vulnerabilitatea la o criza financiara, creand probleme majore pentru managementul macroeconomic. Cresterea fluxurilor de capital in Republica Moldova in ultimii ani a fost determinata de cresterea investitiile straine directe (FDI) si a remitentelor. In aceasta lucrare ne propunem sa analizam varietatea de instrumente macroeconomice utilizate de factorii de decizie in domeniul politicilor economice in tarile in curs de dezvoltare pentru temperarea aprecierii reale a cursului de schimb, cauzata de intrarile de capital, in special flexibilitatea cursului de schimb, deoarece cursul de schimb mai flexibil ar putea atenua in mod eficient aprecierea reala rezultata din intrarile de capital.

Financial globalization offers significant benefits for developing countries, while at the same time, involving significant risks. The significant increases in capital flows increases the vulnerability of the financial system, including through the increase of loans and can lead to economic overheating caused by accelerated economic growth and inflation, and in particular the appreciation of real effective exchange rate (REER). Loss of competitiveness due to real exchange rate appreciation is one of the negative consequences associated with capital flows. Beyond the negative effect on investment, real exchange rate appreciation increases the current account deficit, and increase vulnerability to a financial crisis, creating major problems for macroeconomic management. Increased capital flows in Moldova in recent years were due to increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and remittances. In this paper we propose to analyze the variety of macroeconomic tools used by policymakers in developing countries to mitigate the real appreciation of exchange rate caused by capital inflows, particularly exchange rate flexibility, because the more flexible exchange could effectively mitigate the real appreciation resulting from capital inflows.