Climate Change Impacts, Risks and Vulnerabilities in the Republic of Moldova: Observed Trends and Future Projections

Abstract

This study presents a largely indicator-based assessment of observed and projected climate change, impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities to national economy, agriculture, energy, forestry, human health, and society, based on a wide range of observations and different GCMs simulations. It identifies the regions and Administrative-Territorial Units (ATUs) that are experiencing particularly severe climate change impacts, risks and vulnerabilities. The principal sources of uncertainty for the climate change indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. The climate change indicators included in this report cover observed and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of aggregation: national, regional (Northern, Central and Southern AEZs), ATUs and districts. This study also compiles information from a wide variety of recent data and information sources. It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC 6 Assessment Report (AR6), and a substantial amount of new information that became available due to this report has also been included. th Because climate change is a broad-based and multi-sectoral issue, the Government, business and civil society will need to be engaged in the discussion on what the RoM does to address it. Our aim is to inform those involved in this discussion, and illustrate the linkages between climate change and potential impacts, risks and vulnerabilities including the possible economic damage, the most vulnerable regions and ATUs. The Government, local authorities, urban and rural population, business and civil society are now concerned and interested in the climate change issue. This effort is in response to the country’s policies towards the challenges of climate change, expressed in key strategies such as the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy until 2020 and the Low-Emission Development Strategy of the Republic of Moldova until 2030, and their corresponding Action Plans. The issue of climate change was expressed in these acts, mostly with a focus on sustainable development. Both policies are now under revision and updating process. The implementation of the updated NDC (2020) is foreseen through the Low Emission Development Programme until 2030 and the Action Plan for its implementation (LEDP 2030); its adoption is planned for the second half of 2023 year. The main scope of the LEDP 2030 is to mobilize and enable private and public actors to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from economic activities, in line with the targets set out in the updated NDC. Regarding GHG emission reductions, the LEDP 2030 sets quantifiable targets for energy, industry, buildings transport, agriculture, LULUCF and waste sectors. With support from the UNDP, the Republic of Moldova has developed the National Climate Change Adaptation Programme until 2030 and the Action Plan for its implementation (NCCAP) . The NAP process is key to achieve the adaptation objectives outlined in the previous National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy until 2020 (NCCAS 2020) approved in 2014, as well as to mainstream climate considerations into policies and budgeting processes. The proposed adaptation measures for six priority sectors (agriculture, health, forestry, energy, water, and transport) as well as the identification of the key indicators to monitor the process of adaptation to climate change are being discussed . The NCCAP 2030 is also planned to be approved by Government in the second half of 2023 year. 6 The research and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RoM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. The “climate for change” that currently exists in the RoM will provide the country with the motivation it needs to rise to the challenge. There are a range of adaptation options, such as disaster risk management, early warning systems, climate services and risk spreading and sharing that have broad applicability across sectors and provide greater benefits to other adaptation options when combined. For example, climate services that are inclusive of different users and providers can improve agricultural practices, inform better water use and efficiency, and enable resilient infrastructure planning. Enhancing knowledge on risks, impacts, and their consequences, and available adaptation options promotes societal and policy responses. Building capacity and removing some barriers to accessing finance is fundamental to accelerate adaptation, especially for vulnerable groups, regions and sectors. Climate resilient development is already challenging at current global warming levels. The prospects for climate resilient development will be further limited if global warming levels exceeds 1.5°C and not be possible in some regions and sub-regions if the global warming level exceeds 2°C. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory actions on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.